NIE report says Al Qaeda "a persistent and evolving terrorist threat"

July 17, 2007

Washington, DC - A new U.S. government intelligence analysis says that Al Qaeda's terrorist activities in Iraq not only serve to bolster the group and recruit more members, but may also be the nexus for another planned attack on U.S. soil.

A new U.S. government intelligence analysis says that Al Qaeda's terrorist activities in Iraq not only serve to bolster the group and recruit more members, but may also be the nexus for another planned attack on U.S. soil.

A declassified portion of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), warns of "a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years" from Islamic terrorist groups, namely al Qaeda.

The terrorist group is increasing its efforts to get operatives into the United States for an attack and has nearly all the capabilities it needs to carry out such a mission, according to the report, which represents the combined analyses of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

The NIE, which will be presented to Congress on Tuesday, warns that al Qaeda "will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities" in Iraq to try to launch an attack on U.S. soil.

Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) is the group's "most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the (U.S.) Homeland," the report states.

"Its association with AQI helps al-Qa'ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for (U.S.) Homeland attacks."

There has been concern in the past expressed by officials that the Iraq war has provided a theater for training and testing terrorist capabilities.

The report emphasizes what policymakers have already been saying publicly: al Qaeda is regrouping and remains intent on attacking the United States. The report also notes that al Qaeda has set up a safe haven in Pakistan's tribal areas near the Afghanistan border from which the terrorist organization's leaders can operate.

"We assess that al-Qa'ida's Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets," it said, noting that it believes the group continues to pursue "chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material ... and would not hesitate to use them."