2006 Alaska salmon projections to rank among the top ten Alaska salmon harvests on record

Print

Juneau, Alaska

The 2006 Alaska salmon projection calls for a statewide harvest of 166 million fish. This is substantially below the record harvest of 221 million last year, but is consistent with the ten-year average (167 million fish) and would still rank among the top ten Alaska salmon harvests on record.

Assuming typical fish sizes of the last five years, species composition of the harvest would be about 65 percent pink and chum and 35 percent traditional high-value species (Chinook, coho and sockeye). Considering the improved market conditions for most Alaska salmon species, ex-vessel value of the 2006 harvest may be at or near $300 million, despite a significant reduction in poundage from last year's record harvest.


Sockeye

The statewide sockeye harvest projection of 35 million fish is consistent with the 5-year and 10-year average harvest, but is down significantly from the strong 2004 and 2005 harvests of 43-44 million fish.

The Bristol Bay projection of 23.7 million fish is in line with the 2004-2005 harvest of 25 million from the Bay. But in the remainder of the state, harvest projection for "local" (non-Bristol-Bay) sockeye fisheries is down by 40 percent, from 18.7 million fish (2004-2005) to 11.9 million for 2006.

This has supply implications for market development efforts in the U.S. and European Union, as top-quality "local" sockeye tends to be of greatest interest in those markets. Because of quality challenges associated with management style and peak-season production in Bristol Bay, not all of the Bristol Bay sockeye harvest can serve as a direct replacement for product from the low-volume "local" sockeye fisheries.

The wild card for the 2006 North America sockeye supply is BC Canada. In recent years, the Fraser River system has produced substantial sockeye runs, but because of conservation concerns with the Adams River stock, commercial fishing has been severely restricted. BC Canada fishery managers expect a "high return" of Fraser sockeye in 2006. Specific figures are not available, but indications are for a total Fraser system return on the order of 12 million sockeye. Commercial harvest would certainly be less than the total return, but could easily be sufficient to offset a shortfall from the "local" Alaska sockeye fisheries.

Coho

The coho harvest is projected at 4.9 million fish (slightly over the 5-year average), but projection methodology relies primarily on five-year averages. The 2005 season was remarkable for the small size of coho, which averaged just 6.5 pounds, compared to the 5-year and 10-year average size of 7.2 pounds.

Chinook

The 2006 Chinook projection of 780,000 fish is among the highest in 20 years. Since 1985, Chinook harvest has exceeded 700,000 fish only once, in 2004. Primary production areas in the 2006 forecast are Southeast (446,000) and Bristol Bay (141,000).

Market conditions for Chinook are strong. In 2005, the statewide average price was $2.27 per pound, one of only three years on record when the price has been over $2 per pound. Prices for Winter troll Chinook and for Copper River Chinook reached record highs this year. Accordingly, fishing effort is expected to be strong wherever opportunities to target the species are available.

Pink

The statewide pink harvest projection is 108 million fish. Since 2006 is considered an "off" year in the two-year abundance cycle for pinks, harvest is not expected to dramatically exceed forecast as it did in 2005. In fact, harvest in the last five even-numbered years has been slightly below forecast, by about 10 percent.

Because of market conditions and related logistical considerations, processors have limited their purchases of pink salmon from the fleet in several recent years. As a result, biological strength of the even-year pink runs may be greater than what is indicated by actual harvest figures.

Considering the improved market conditions for pink salmon, the industry is expected to take the full harvestable surplus of pink salmon in 2006, which could be significantly above the forecast of 108 million fish.

Chum

The 2006 chum harvest is projected at 17.5 million fish. Actual harvest of chums in the last three years has been significantly below forecast, by an average of 26 percent.

However, the confidence level in the 2006 chum projection is better than in previous years. About 60 percent of the 2006 harvest projection is from hatchery-produced fish. Several hatchery operators indicate that for chum expected to return in 2006, near-shore survival conditions and fish size at release were very good.

Information from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game